On Certainty (+ Uncertainty)

VUCA is an acronym first introduced in 1987 by Warren Bennis and Burt Nanus, and later adopted by the Army War College to describe situations that are by nature Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous.

Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity not only aptly describe the chaos of modern warfare; they define the very world and society we currently live in.

Whether it’s COVID-19, government closures, media misinformation, political radicalism, unemployment, labor shortages, inflation, riots, “wokeness,” defunding of the police, or skyrocketing crime rates – just to name a few stressors to pile on top of all the “normal” challenges that life throws at us during the best of times – it’s no surprise that today’s VUCA world is resulting in unprecedented stress and hardship for so many.

Believe me, I can relate!

So how do we survive such VUCA times?

 Well, it’s my belief that not only can you survive, but you can thrive – if you have the right mindset.

Certainty & Uncertainty

The first part of that mindset is to understand that certainty is a fundamental human need. Most people want a “certain” level of stability to their income, they want to have a “certain” level of predictability to their day and their routine, and a “certain” degree of confidence that they and their family are safe and secure.

But as vital as certainty is for most people, so too is uncertainty! Without a degree of uncertainty, life becomes boring and bland. This is why people naturally crave variety. Why most people like to try new foods. Why some choose to remain single, or cheat on their spouse, and why spontaneity and a little dangerousness are qualities that Hollywood portrays in the attractive main characters.

Too much certainty in life becomes boring. Too much uncertainty in life becomes stressful.

Under normal conditions, maintaining a healthy balance between your needs for certainty and uncertainty keeps life both interesting and under control. But when every aspect of life seems Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous, balance feels impossible.

This is where the second part of that mindset comes into play – that the only thing that’s truly certain in life is change…

To survive, you have to be strong – both physically and mentally – right? Isn’t that what Charles Darwin meant when he said, “Survival of the Fittest”? You see variations of this slogan on gym walls, T-shirts, and social media memes everywhere.

But in reality, “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent. It is the one most adaptable to change.” This quote, by Leon Megginson, Professor of Management and Marketing at Louisiana State University in 1963, in my mind, hits the nail on the head.

It’s not the strong who survive; it’s the most adaptable.

No matter how big and strong the oak tree, it will break if the storm is too great. In contrast, the palm tree bends with the wind. And not only does the palm tree stand tall again when the storm passes, but all the stress and pressure of the storm serve only to make it stronger, more flexible, more resilient.

The same holds true for those who try to meet VUCA conditions with strength alone. They ultimately find themselves worn down, beat up…maybe even broken.

This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t work to make yourself physically strong; it means that you must not lose sight of the most important factor: adaptability. Adaptability means flexibility. The ability to bend and to flow no matter how great the storm.

Some of the toughest, most resilient people I’ve met were not the biggest, strongest, or most physically imposing people, and in contrast, some of the physically strongest and fittest were the least capable of adapting to changing circumstances – in many ways, emotionally, they were the most brittle.

The adaptable were the people everyone turned to in times of trouble. They were leaders, not because they held a title or position, but because they always seemed cool headed, able to make good decisions under pressure, and supremely capable of managing difficulties that would crumble most people. The thing is, they were experiencing the same VUCA conditions as everyone else. They had their doubts and fears and uncertainties, just like everyone else too. They just had a different way of internalizing and responding.

Train the body and the mind follows.

So how do you achieve this kind of adaptability and resilience?

Simple…you train.

Simple, but not easy.

When it comes to teaching people how to protect themselves, I’ve always focused on one primary factor: what works in the real world. I would ruthlessly evaluate and cull techniques and systems based on a set of scientific criteria that I’ll summarize here as “use what works, discard the rest, but understand why.”

In my journey of development, which has now spanned more than 3 decades (if I include early martial arts and wrestling), I’ve had the privilege of training with some truly world-class and great instructors (and a few not so great) from a wide variety of martial arts: Wrestling, Tai Kwon Do, Karate, Filipino martial arts, JKD, Judo, Jiu Jitsu, Sambo, MMA, Krav Maga, and a wide variety of other “reality based” systems.

All these divergent systems contributed technically, one way or another, to what I teach today, but what has become even clearer to me is that regardless of the techniques or mechanics you choose to stop an aggressor, the ultimate purpose of training your body is, in fact, to train your mind.

Regardless of the content or program, my real goal is to change the way you think and interact with the world. Not just by teaching how to recognize danger and respond in a tactically, morally, and legally appropriate way, but also to instill a calmness and confidence that you can be comfortable even in extremely uncomfortable situations. That you have certainty, not in the outcome, but in your ability to meet whatever challenge may present itself. That you can adapt, even to life threatening situations that represent the most extreme manifestation of VUCA.

Human violence being the ultimate expression of VUCA.

When you become comfortable managing violence, you become comfortable managing life. You build emotional muscle that you simply cannot build any other way.

The right training changes you. And that’s one of the reasons so many choose to continue training with me, sometimes for years, beyond achieving the basic skills they need to protect themselves and their family. It’s because whether they’re conscious of it or not, they know they’re onto something: that regardless of how big, strong, fast, or skilled you are, ultimately, it’s the emotional muscle you build that enables you not only to survive, but to thrive in the chaos of life.